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Introduction This report describes selected demographic and economic characteristics of the Kemp Mill Master Plan Area. The report serves as background for the update of the master plan and is intended to assist government officials and stakeholders to better understand and plan for the future of the area. Kemp Mill is a suburban community composed primarily of single-family detached houses, built in the 1950s and 1960s. Tree shaded streets are lined with sidewalks and moderate to mid-sized houses interspersed with schools, synagogues, and churches. Most properties are very well-maintained and nicely landscaped. Neighborhoods are reminiscent of the settings for family television programs of several decades earlier. The area benefits from the two major stream valley parks, Sligo and Northwest Branch, and Wheaton Regional Park on its edges; but suffers from busy University Boulevard crossing it, separating one section of the Master Plan Area from the other. Other important elements of the community are a neighborhood level shopping center, a section of high-rise housing, including housing for the elderly, and a nursing home. Townhouses are comparatively rare. Kemp Mill is a lovely place to grow up and grow older, offering housing for almost every stage of the human life cycle. Kemp Mill is located in the northeastern and eastern sections of the Kensington/Wheaton Planning Area. It comprises traffic zones 59 and 60 and the northern edge of 58. The demographic data in this report does not include traffic zone 58, however. Census Update Survey data is not available for areas smaller than the traffic zone. Since only a small portion of traffic zone 58 is in Kemp Mill, data for the whole zone may not accurately describe the Kemp Mill section. Fortunately, Kemp Mill's housing in traffic zone 58 is quite similar to housing in other parts of Kemp Mill. Since residents of similar housing in neighboring areas typically have comparatively similar demographic characteristics, the profile of the two adjacent traffic zones may be expected to represent the residents of the third area fairly accurately. Kemp Mill is bounded by Sligo Creek Park on the west. Northwest Branch Park on the east, Randolph Road on the north, and Dennis Avenue, University Boulevard, Eisner Street, and an arm of the Northwest Branch Park on the south. (map) Age. The total percentage of persons over age 65 is declining in Kemp Mill but is still more than 80 percent above the County-wide percentage, 21.1 percent in Kemp Mill compared to 11.6 percent County-wide. The large percentage of older residents affects other demographic characteristics of the Master Plan Area in a number of ways:
Methodology The Department of Park and Planning regularly conducts a stratified random sample survey of households in Montgomery County, known as the Census Update Survey, to update the decennial U.S. Census findings. Surveys take place twice each decade in years ending in 4 and 7. The first was conducted in 1974. Typically, 16,000 to 17,000 residents complete the mailed questionnaire, representing a response rate of more than 60 percent. [This response rate is considered very high for a mailed survey] Questions and terminology generally parallel those employed by the U.S. Census. The County survey offers several features of particular interest for local planning. It distinguishes between garden and high-rise apartments, recognizing the demographic differences between their residents, and permits allocation of data to the Department's basic geography, the traffic zone. Small area analysis of Census Update Survey data is constrained by the basic unit geography, the traffic zone. The results of the survey are adjusted (weighted) to reflect the housing counts, housing types, racial distribution of school children, and other factors for each traffic zone. Once adjustments are made, results are best reported at the traffic zone level or for aggregations of traffic zones. They are not easily adapted to areas with different boundaries. Users of the data should also be aware that small changes in data between surveys, in this case 1987 and 1997 may reflect variations in the sample rather than actual change. While different data items have different margins of error, it is generally best to assume that a change of less than 2 percentage points may not represent actual change.
The percentage of householders living alone grew from 22 percent in 1987 to 29 percent in 1997. Some of the change has taken place in multi-family housing where small households are the norm, but the percentage of single occupants of single-family detached housing has also increased from 9.7 percent of single-family households to 14.3 percent. Kemp Mill's housing attracts older single people as well as families. Household Growth The Round 6.1 cooperative forecast of households expects very little growth in Kemp Mill between 1995 and 2025. More than half of this limited growth is forecast to occur between 2020 and 2025, when the County will be largely developed and "in-fill" will be the major source of new housing. The forecast does not anticipate any increase in multi-family housing in the area. This forecast is consistent with the limited amount of land available for new construction.
Within each of the two major housing types, Kemp Mill offers many choices. The high-rise buildings include: a sizable condominium community. University Towers; a large market-rate rental community, the Warwick; and housing for the elderly, Arcola Towers. Single-family housing comprises a number of styles: ranch models, split levels, split foyers, two-story colonials, and unusual one-and-one-half-story colonials. With very little new construction, the composition of Kemp Mill's housing stock has not changed appreciably since 1990. The forecast does not anticipate changes in the foreseeable future, although the percentage of townhouses could grow slightly.
Although the overall percentage of children has not changed, their age distribution has. The percentage of preschoolers has declined from over 7 percent to about 5 percent of the total population, while the percentage of school age children has increased from 15.6 percent to 17.7 percent. These changes affect school enrollment, chiefly in the elementary grades today and secondary grades soon, as children born in the boom of the late 1980s and early 1990s mature. The high percentage of older adults in Kemp Mill and the slightly smaller percentage of children are reflected in the average age of household heads. The typical head is 54.6 years old compared to 49 years old County-wide. The average age of heads in single-family households is the same in Kemp Mill and the County, 52 years old. The difference stems from the apartment population. The average head age in multi-family housing is 62 in Kemp Mill compared to 55.5 County-wide. About 15 percent of the apartments are targeted for the elderly, but it appears that senior adults are heavily represented in the other complexes as well. In fact, 43 percent of area high-rise residents are 65 and older, compared to 31 percent County-wide. Gender
An important factor in Kemp Mill's comparative homogeneity may be the high percentage of long-term residents in the area. Much of the County's increasing diversity results from immigration in the 1980s and 1990s. Because there has been little new housing and residents tend to stay in their homes for many years in Kemp Mill, the area has received fewer newcomers than other parts of the County. Sixty-five percent of Kemp Mill's residents had the same address in 1997 as 5 years earlier, compared to 56 percent Countywide. Typically, residents of single-family housing stay in their homes for fairly long periods. Kemp Mill is no exception. Both Kemp Mill and the County show a median length of residence in single-family dwellings of 11 years. Where the two differ is in multi-family housing. While high-rise dwellers County-wide stay a median of 4 years, residents of the apartments in Kemp Mill report a median of 7 years, a long time for apartment dwellers. Another factor in Kemp Mills' racial and ethnic homogeneity is the high percentage of elderly residents. Federal immigration laws before 1965 strongly favored white immigrants. Since immigrants tend to be relatively young, there are few non-European immigrants among older residents. Whites also enjoy a comparatively long life expectancy that increases their proportion of the population in the oldest age groups. Finally, Kemp Mill's synagogues and churches appear to attract members of their denominations to the neighborhood, which encourages relative homogeneity. If the race of total population, rather than household heads, is compared for both the County and Kemp Mill, the percentage representation of each minority group increases. This is because nonwhite households tend to be younger and to have more children than non-Hispanic whites, and thus, have larger households. Recent immigrants are also more likely to live in extended family households than native born residents. Hispanic Origin In 1987 the percentage of Hispanic household heads or spouses was about the same in both Kemp Mill and the County as a whole, 4.6 and 4.3 percent respectively. In 1997, the percentage County-wide had increased to 6.1 percent, while the percentage in Kemp Mill remained essentially unchanged at 4.3 percent. The same factors that affect racial distribution in the area also impact the percentage of Hispanic origin residents. Both are influenced by the area's older population and low rate of mobility. As with race, the proportion of the total population that is of Hispanic origin is larger than the proportion of household heads that are Hispanic. County-wide, 8.6 percent of the population is Hispanic. In Kemp Mill, 7.4 percent are Hispanic. The tendency for Hispanic households to contain more children and other relatives is a major factor in this difference. Foreign Born
School Attendance
Work Location The leading work location remains Washington, D.C. accounting for 27.5 percent of Kemp Mill's work force. This share is unchanged from 10 years ago and is about 4 points higher than the County-wide share of persons working in the District. Kemp Mill's share commuting "elsewhere in Maryland" is also noticeably higher, 6 percent compared to 4 percent County-wide. Within the County, however, Kemp Mill's distribution of workers inside and outside the Beltway is very similar to the County-wide pattern. Transportation to Work
Household Size As mentioned in the discussion of age, Kemp Mill's smaller average household size reflects the older population and the number of single residents. The average has declined since 1987 from 2.56 to 2.47 persons per household.
With so many one-person households, it is not surprising that Kemp Mill also has a lower percentage of married-couple households. 69 percent compared to 75 percent County-wide. Single-parent households are relatively scarce in Kemp Mill. There were insufficient Census Update Survey responses from single-parent households to provide reliable data. Income The majority of Kemp Mill's single-family households, 73 percent, have incomes over $50,000. The apartment residents' incomes are more moderate. The Kemp Mill median for multifamily households is $30,895 compared to $44,720 for multi-family County-wide. This is consistent with a large number of elderly persons living alone who are likely to live on various packages of social security and other retirement income. Not only are retirement incomes typically lower than working age incomes, but single-person households do not have the advantage of two incomes. In Kemp Mill, 65.5 percent of the high-rise households consist of one person compared to 55.8 percent County-wide. Car Ownership Kemp Mill's housing sales prices are generally in the moderate range. Townhouse prices are comparatively high, reflecting the newness of this component of the housing stock. This conclusion is based on an examination of sales in the two Census Update Survey years for which demographic data are presented in this report, 1987 and 1997, as well as the middle year, 1992. The number of sales has declined over the period for all housing types in Kemp Mill. [The Park and Planning Department's Sales/Transactions Automated Report (STAR) tends to undercount the number of sales. In order to obtain the best possible price information certain types of sales, such as those between relatives or those varying substantially from other similar houses or their tax assessments, are not believed to reflect market prices and are not included in the data.] There were at least 125 sales of existing single-family detached houses in 1987, 100 in 1992, and only about 70 in 1997. The only sales of new single-family detached housing took place in 1987 when 25 new homes were completed just west of Kemp Mill Road. Condominiums typically sell at the rate of 10 to 15 per year. 1987 was the exception with 95 condo sales, resulting from the conversion of University Towers from a rental property to a condo. Since townhouses are in limited supply in Kemp Mill, it is not surprising that there are few townhouse sales, generally 5 or less. The exception was 1992 when 15 of the townhouses on Watermill Lane were built and sold. Prices of Kemp Mill's existing single-family detached houses have increased substantially since 1987. They had not, however, regained their early nineties peak by 1997, nor had their growth kept pace with the increase in existing single-family detached unit prices County-wide. The lag probably reflects the relative age and moderate size of many Kemp Mill homes compared to the increasing stock of larger, newer houses and older ones with substantial additions elsewhere in the County. Nonetheless, Kemp Mill's single-family housing prices remain in the middle range for housing County-wide.
Townhouse sales are too few to permit detailed analysis of prices. However, the new townhouses built in 1992 sold for somewhat more than the County-wide median for new townhouses. The median price was $191,700 in Kemp Mill compared to $185.735 County-wide. Based on very few sales, resale prices have been in the same range. Conclusion View the statistics from the 1997 Census Update: Page 1 2 3 4 |
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Population and Households
Housing Types
Age
Race of Household
Head
Educational Attainment
Employment Status
Occupation
Tenure
Family Type
Condo
prices have shown the same general pattern as single-family housing
prices, increasing between 1987 and 1992, then decreasing modestly
to 1997. County-wide condominium prices are not available
for comparison but Kemp Mill's prices appear to be in the moderate
range.